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Supply Chain Uncertainty, Energy Prices and Inflation
Using U.S. and EA data, we document that (i) the pass-through of energy prices to inflation is state-dependent ― stronger when supply chain uncertainty is elevated ― and (ii) in such states, energy prices become more informative about broader supply chain conditions. We develop a theory in which firms use two inputs ― energy and a specialized component ― both shipped through a capacity-constrained network. Under congestion, energy can still be sourced in local liquid markets at a premium, while the specialized input faces stochastic transportation shocks. Because energy is a liquid, globally traded input whose price reflects congestion, firms treat it as a noisy signal of unobserved delays and update their beliefs via Bayesian learning. This belief channel raises perceived marginal costs and generates an uncertainty-driven component of marginal cost that amplifies and propagates energy shocks. Both the static and the dynamic pass-through from energy prices to output prices scale with supply chain uncertainty. Embedding this mechanism in a New Keynesian model, we show that higher supply chain uncertainty increases the sensitivity and persistence of inflation to transitory energy shocks, and relate these findings to the 2021-23 inflation episode. Our findings call for a reconsideration of the so-called ＂look-through＂ approach of monetary policy to supply shocks.
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