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Climate disasters and tax morale in sub-Saharan Africa
- Climate-related natural disasters are a major challenge for developing countries, where fiscal space is limited and climate risk is high. Their increasing frequency and severity, driven by climate change, causes substantial human and economic loss. According to one estimate, severe weather events cause the deaths of 40,000 to 50,000 individuals and economic losses amounting to global GDP reductions of around 2% every year (Ritchie et al. 2022). Climate shocks strain economies, erode tax bases, and heighten household vulnerability, yet their effects on citizens’ attitudes, especially tax morale, remain underexplored.
- ur recent study investigates the impact of such disasters on tax morale―citizen’s intrinsic motivation to comply with tax obligations―in 26 sub-Saharan African countries using Afrobarometer survey data from 2011 to 2021. Tax morale is measured based on survey respondents’ level of agreement with the statement, ‘Tax authorities always have the right to make people pay taxes.’ Six types of disasters are considered separately: droughts, extreme temperatures, floods, storms, earthquakes, and wildfires. The results from logistic regression models reveal that droughts, extreme temperatures, floods, and storms are associated with reduced tax morale, while earthquakes and wildfires are associated with an increase. The strongest associations are between extreme temperatures and tax morale (-.50) and ㅁearthquakes and tax morale (1.03), while droughts and storms were less strongly associated at -.12 and -.15, respectively. All coefficients are statistically significant at the >10% level. The negative effects are especially strong in rural areas. Those countries with proactive climate policies―such as Benin, Kenya, and South Africa―show no tax morale decline, highlighting the importance of effective governance in climate response.
- ur recent study investigates the impact of such disasters on tax morale―citizen’s intrinsic motivation to comply with tax obligations―in 26 sub-Saharan African countries using Afrobarometer survey data from 2011 to 2021. Tax morale is measured based on survey respondents’ level of agreement with the statement, ‘Tax authorities always have the right to make people pay taxes.’ Six types of disasters are considered separately: droughts, extreme temperatures, floods, storms, earthquakes, and wildfires. The results from logistic regression models reveal that droughts, extreme temperatures, floods, and storms are associated with reduced tax morale, while earthquakes and wildfires are associated with an increase. The strongest associations are between extreme temperatures and tax morale (-.50) and ㅁearthquakes and tax morale (1.03), while droughts and storms were less strongly associated at -.12 and -.15, respectively. All coefficients are statistically significant at the >10% level. The negative effects are especially strong in rural areas. Those countries with proactive climate policies―such as Benin, Kenya, and South Africa―show no tax morale decline, highlighting the importance of effective governance in climate response.
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