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When wording changes what we find: The impact of inflation expectations on spending
- How do inflation expectations influence household spending? The answer depends on how consumption questions are asked. This study reveals that subtle differences in survey wording can substantially change the estimated relationship between inflation expectations and consumption. The results highlight the importance of careful survey design and interpretation, as measurement choices can lead to misleading empirical conclusions and potentially inaccurate policy advice.
- Macroeconomic theory offers unambiguous predictions about the role of inflation expectations in shaping household consumption decisions through intertemporal incentives, with important implications for aggregate demand and inflation dynamics. In contrast, empirical studies that measure how households actually respond to changes in inflation expectations reach strikingly different conclusions. Depending on the study, inflation expectations appear to increase consumption, have no effect, or even reduce spending. We investigate in this paper whether the conflicting findings in the literature can be explained by differences in how surveys elicit consumption behavior.
- To address this question, we embedded a randomization experiment in the Bundesbank Online Panel-Households (BOP-HH). The experiment systematically varies the wording and framing of consumption questions to uncover how the specific design of questions affects the estimated relationship between inflation expectations and spending. To be more precise, the experiment varies the framing of consumption questions along three dimensions: (1) the reference unit (individual vs. household spending), (2) the time horizon (past 1, 3, or 12 months), and (3) the question type (attitudinal, planned spending, qualitative recall-based, and quantitative recall-based). Respondents are randomly assigned to different question formats, allowing us to isolate the causal impact of survey design on the observed relationship between inflation expectations and consumption
- Macroeconomic theory offers unambiguous predictions about the role of inflation expectations in shaping household consumption decisions through intertemporal incentives, with important implications for aggregate demand and inflation dynamics. In contrast, empirical studies that measure how households actually respond to changes in inflation expectations reach strikingly different conclusions. Depending on the study, inflation expectations appear to increase consumption, have no effect, or even reduce spending. We investigate in this paper whether the conflicting findings in the literature can be explained by differences in how surveys elicit consumption behavior.
- To address this question, we embedded a randomization experiment in the Bundesbank Online Panel-Households (BOP-HH). The experiment systematically varies the wording and framing of consumption questions to uncover how the specific design of questions affects the estimated relationship between inflation expectations and spending. To be more precise, the experiment varies the framing of consumption questions along three dimensions: (1) the reference unit (individual vs. household spending), (2) the time horizon (past 1, 3, or 12 months), and (3) the question type (attitudinal, planned spending, qualitative recall-based, and quantitative recall-based). Respondents are randomly assigned to different question formats, allowing us to isolate the causal impact of survey design on the observed relationship between inflation expectations and consumption
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