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Good Housing Booms, Bad Housing Booms: Classifying Local Housing-Market Episodes and Their Macroeconomic Consequences
한국은행은 전세 제도를 활용하여 주택 호황의 유형을 구분하고, 평가 중심 호황이 가계 차입 및 거시경제에 미치는 영향을 분석한 보고서를 발표하였다.
How can we distinguish good housing booms from bad ones? We develop a high-frequency classification of local housing-market episodes that separates demand-dominant movements from flow-supply-dominant movements and then distinguishes, within demand-dominant episodes, between housing-service-dominant and valuation-dominant booms. We implement the framework using Korea’s Jeonse system―a lump-sum lease arrangement that provides a market-based, capitalized benchmark for current housing-service value―together with monthly district-level data. Housing-service-dominant booms are followed by higher consumption, employment, and output, whereas valuation-dominant booms are followed by weaker economic activity. Using borrower-level panel data covering 710,000 borrowers per quarter, we show that valuation-dominant episodes are associated with greater household borrowing and lower expenditure. The expenditure decline is larger among borrowers with faster prior debt growth, a pattern consistent with a household balance-sheet channel.
How can we distinguish good housing booms from bad ones? We develop a high-frequency classification of local housing-market episodes that separates demand-dominant movements from flow-supply-dominant movements and then distinguishes, within demand-dominant episodes, between housing-service-dominant and valuation-dominant booms. We implement the framework using Korea’s Jeonse system―a lump-sum lease arrangement that provides a market-based, capitalized benchmark for current housing-service value―together with monthly district-level data. Housing-service-dominant booms are followed by higher consumption, employment, and output, whereas valuation-dominant booms are followed by weaker economic activity. Using borrower-level panel data covering 710,000 borrowers per quarter, we show that valuation-dominant episodes are associated with greater household borrowing and lower expenditure. The expenditure decline is larger among borrowers with faster prior debt growth, a pattern consistent with a household balance-sheet channel.
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