전망·동향
The strength of the inflation-output link in China
We systematically investigate the relationship between China‘s inflation, economic slack, and expectations through the lens of New Keynesian Phillips Curves (NKPC). Extending existing research, we employ inflation expectations from Consensus Economics over recent samples and assess the stability of the estimates. Despite China‘s unique and evolving institutions, NKPC estimates are stable and show significant roles for both the output gap and inflation expectations in contrast to previous findings. Incorporating open-economy variables marginally enhances the models performance. Our results suggest that the New Keynesian framework can be adopted to China without adjustments for specific institutional features.
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