전망·동향
High-frequency instruments with time-varying reliability: Understanding identification in macroeconomics
The effects of monetary policy shocks are regularly estimated using high-frequency surprises in asset prices around central bank meetings as an instrument. These studies, insofar as they explicitly model the relationship between instrument and structural shock, assume a constant relationship between the instrument and the monetary policy shock. By allowing for time variation in this relationship, we show that only a few distinct periods are informative about monetary policy shocks. Therefore, we build a narrative for instrument-based identification. For the instrument in Gertler & Karadi (2015), the effect on the (log) price level is almost 50 percent larger than the standard specification would suggest.
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