- Zambia’s economy and food security rely heavily on farming that depends entirely on rainfall rather than irrigation, making rural households particularly vulnerable to increasingly frequent and severe droughts. Drought-related declines in agricultural income and consumption (household spending on food and other essentials) push many households into poverty. In the worst-case scenarios, consumption for the poorest can drop by more than 40%.
- This study evaluates the Zambia’s Social Cash Transfer (SCT) programme. Using the MicroZAMOD tax-benefit microsimulation model―a model that simulates how taxes and social benefits affect households under different scenarios―and district-level rainfall data, we analyse the effects of droughts on poverty and consumption, evaluate the SCT’s role in protecting vulnerable households, and examine how reforms could enhance the programme’s responsiveness to droughts.