Trade in Goods and Services Outlook in Asia and the Pacific | 국외연구자료

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Trade in Goods and Services Outlook in Asia and the Pacific

UNESCAP

2023.12.18

Faced with a continued shift towards spending in services, high living costs, a restrictive policy environment and geopolitical uncertainty, merchandise trade is forecasted to decline in 2023. Globally, real exports and imports are expected to contract by 1.0% and 1.7%, respectively, while in Asia and the Pacific (excluding the Russian Federation) the slowdown will be more acute, with estimated declines of 3.5% and 2.2%, respectively. Nominally, merchandise trade in Asia and the Pacific in 2023 is projected to total US$ 17.6 trillion, shy of last year’s US$ 18.8 trillion.
In 2024, regional merchandise trade is expected to pick-up moderately. Supported by developing Asia-Pacific, regional real exports and imports (excluding the Russian Federation) are forecasted to expand by 3.2% and 3.4%, respectively. Nominally, these figures are expected to be 6.2% and 5.8%, respectively, marking a return to a mild price increase.
Price fluctuations in Asia and the Pacific are largely mirroring the inverse of last year’s inflationary trends. With the correction of key commodities prices, such as oil, gas, metals and agricultural fertilizers, most economies that a saw steep, commodity-fueled, export or import price increase in 2022 are looking at the opposite dynamic in 2023.

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