국제무역
The Macroeconomic Impact of Reducing Gross Gambling Yield: An Empirically Informed Model
□ Main Findings
- Of the projected ？812 million reduction in gross gambling yield (GGY), which results from enhanced regulatory measures, the majority is retained within the wider economy, with only ？134 million (approximately 16 per cent of the total reduction in GGY) expected to translate into a net negative impact on UK GDP
- As most regulatory changes affect online gambling, which has lower economic multipliers than land-based gambling, the true net impact is likely lower than ？134 million
- Potential leakage to the unlicensed gambling market was assessed; our study suggests that 8 per cent of people who regularly gamble reported they would consistently consider the unlicensed gambling market . About one third (32.7 per cent) of this group already gamble on unlicensed websites. Accounting for this movement to the unlicensed gambling market increases the estimated net negative impact to approximately ？189 million, or 23 per cent of the total reduction in GGY.
- Findings suggest that people who reduce gambling spending are likely to redirect money toward essentials―food, daily shopping, and household needs―as well as savings or debt repayment rather than additional leisure spending.
□ The 2023 White Paper High Stakes: Gambling Reform for the Digital Age proposed a series of enhanced regulatory measures for gambling, which are projected to reduce Gross Gambling Yield - the amount of money retained by the gambling industry after paying out winnings - by approximately ？812 million.
□ We use this projected impact on gross gambling yield to estimate the net economic impact of the reduced gambling expenditure.
- Of the projected ？812 million reduction in gross gambling yield (GGY), which results from enhanced regulatory measures, the majority is retained within the wider economy, with only ？134 million (approximately 16 per cent of the total reduction in GGY) expected to translate into a net negative impact on UK GDP
- As most regulatory changes affect online gambling, which has lower economic multipliers than land-based gambling, the true net impact is likely lower than ？134 million
- Potential leakage to the unlicensed gambling market was assessed; our study suggests that 8 per cent of people who regularly gamble reported they would consistently consider the unlicensed gambling market . About one third (32.7 per cent) of this group already gamble on unlicensed websites. Accounting for this movement to the unlicensed gambling market increases the estimated net negative impact to approximately ？189 million, or 23 per cent of the total reduction in GGY.
- Findings suggest that people who reduce gambling spending are likely to redirect money toward essentials―food, daily shopping, and household needs―as well as savings or debt repayment rather than additional leisure spending.
□ The 2023 White Paper High Stakes: Gambling Reform for the Digital Age proposed a series of enhanced regulatory measures for gambling, which are projected to reduce Gross Gambling Yield - the amount of money retained by the gambling industry after paying out winnings - by approximately ？812 million.
□ We use this projected impact on gross gambling yield to estimate the net economic impact of the reduced gambling expenditure.
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