국제무역
Beyond GDP: the case of real-time barometer of economic activity in South Africa
This paper makes the case for measuring economic activity in real time in a middle-income setting using indicators alternative to the standard System of National Accounts measure of gross domestic product (GDP). GDP remains indispensable, yet its limits as a welfare proxy are amplified where informality is large and statistical capacity constrained.
Using South Africa as a case study, we show how reliance on delayed and incomplete sources weakens the accuracy of official figures, motivating the use of complementary data streams. We evaluate the potential of household surveys, satellite imagery, mobile and payments data, online prices, and text-based indicators, and show how they can be combined into nowcasting frameworks that capture both shocks and slow-moving structural change.
The contribution is to synthesize disparate literatures, assess the feasibility of sector-specific proxies, and propose a blueprint for a composite real-time indicator that complements rather than supplants GDP.
Using South Africa as a case study, we show how reliance on delayed and incomplete sources weakens the accuracy of official figures, motivating the use of complementary data streams. We evaluate the potential of household surveys, satellite imagery, mobile and payments data, online prices, and text-based indicators, and show how they can be combined into nowcasting frameworks that capture both shocks and slow-moving structural change.
The contribution is to synthesize disparate literatures, assess the feasibility of sector-specific proxies, and propose a blueprint for a composite real-time indicator that complements rather than supplants GDP.
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