국제무역
The impact of international economic sanctions on informal employment
What happens to jobs when a country is cut off from the global economy? Our study investigates how international economic sanctions influence labour markets, focusing on the shift from formal to informal employment. By analysing the case of Iran following the 2012 sanctions, we demonstrate that industries with higher exposure to international trade experienced a substantial increase in informal employment. The findings highlight the role of informal employment as an absorber of external economic shocks.
[Findings]
- Workers in tradable industries have a 5-percentage point (approximately 9%) higher probability of being informally employed after the sanctions
- Sanctions don’t change the overall employment rate or the likelihood of part-time work, indicating that the labour market adjusts by increasing informality rather than job losses
- Informal employment rose more sharply among less-educated workers, showing that sanctions hit vulnerable groups the hardest
[Findings]
- Workers in tradable industries have a 5-percentage point (approximately 9%) higher probability of being informally employed after the sanctions
- Sanctions don’t change the overall employment rate or the likelihood of part-time work, indicating that the labour market adjusts by increasing informality rather than job losses
- Informal employment rose more sharply among less-educated workers, showing that sanctions hit vulnerable groups the hardest
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