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On the Political Economy of Urbanization: Experimental Evidence from Mozambique
Urbanization can generate large economic gains, but it presents electoral risks for incumbents. This paper studies the economic and political effects of a program to integrate rural migrants in a growing Mozambican city. We randomized city blocks into three arms: program delivery with or without the involvement of local leaders, and a no-program control. The program increased rural-to-urban migration across both treatment arms, but improved labor market integration and local incumbent electoral outcomes only with leader involvement. We also observe electoral spillovers in migrants‘ origin areas, no clientelistic responses, and no resident backlash. These findings show that city-level integration policies can deliver both economic and political returns.
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