전망·동향
Networked Information and Industrial Output: Evidence from Chile’s 1972 Truckers’ Strike
This paper examines Cybersyn ― Chile‘s cybernetic coordination system under Salvador Allende ― during the October 1972 national truckers‘ strike, which cut aggregate industrial output by roughly 9 percent. Using monthly data for twenty sectors and a calibrated CES？Leontief model, I construct sector-specific counterfactuals for the trucking shock. The four government-designated priority sectors outperform their structural predictions by an average of 17 index points; the priority？non-priority differential sits at the 90th percentile of a permutation null distribution (p = 0.100). Mitigation was selective: concentrated in sectors with state-enterprise ownership, simple supply chains, and military distribution support. Where coordination needs were greatest ― food and beverages ― priority designation provided no measurable protection. Cybersyn was more effective at protecting the sectors it was easiest to protect than those that most needed protecting: a partial vindication and a realistic assessment of its limits.
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