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Will Prohibiting Vapes Work? Evidence from a Survey in Turkiye
- Smoking cigarettes poses substantial health risks, yet in T？rkiye almost 30 percent of adults are smokers, and this rate has largely remained steady. Over the past decade, the tobacco product landscape has evolved significantly with the advent of noncombustible nicotine delivery systems, most notably electronic cigarettes (vapes). Policymakers face a regulatory dilemma: how to harness the potential public health benefits of vaping for adult smokers while mitigating the risks of uptake among new users. T？rkiye banned the import of vapes with a presidential decree issued on February 25, 2020, and because the government has not approved domestic production, vapes are effectively banned in the country―though the ban led to the emergence of an illegal market.
- We conducted an online experiment eliciting preferences of adult Turkish smokers for traditional cigarettes, roll-your-own cigarettes, vapes, and quitting. The data allowed us to estimate the impact of prospective government policies such as lifting the ban on vapes, better preventing illegal markets, allowing the sale of flavored vapes, and using tax policy to influence choices.
- Our findings indicate that the prices of nicotine products and the prices of substitute nicotine products heavily influenced consumers‘ choices, suggesting that taxation remains a highly effective tool in discouraging cigarette use. Consumers shifted their choices toward traditional tobacco products when vapes became restricted or unavailable―a concerning unintended consequence because traditional cigarettes are more harmful than vapes. Consumers were willing to pay 37？50 percent less for illegal vapes relative to the average price of a pack of cigarettes, percentages lower than the current 80？85 percent tax rate on packaged cigarettes in T？rkiye. Therefore, legalizing vapes and taxing them at a lower rate than cigarettes could improve public health outcomes by encouraging smokers to switch from cigarettes to vapes.
- We conducted an online experiment eliciting preferences of adult Turkish smokers for traditional cigarettes, roll-your-own cigarettes, vapes, and quitting. The data allowed us to estimate the impact of prospective government policies such as lifting the ban on vapes, better preventing illegal markets, allowing the sale of flavored vapes, and using tax policy to influence choices.
- Our findings indicate that the prices of nicotine products and the prices of substitute nicotine products heavily influenced consumers‘ choices, suggesting that taxation remains a highly effective tool in discouraging cigarette use. Consumers shifted their choices toward traditional tobacco products when vapes became restricted or unavailable―a concerning unintended consequence because traditional cigarettes are more harmful than vapes. Consumers were willing to pay 37？50 percent less for illegal vapes relative to the average price of a pack of cigarettes, percentages lower than the current 80？85 percent tax rate on packaged cigarettes in T？rkiye. Therefore, legalizing vapes and taxing them at a lower rate than cigarettes could improve public health outcomes by encouraging smokers to switch from cigarettes to vapes.
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