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Fault Lines in the Horn of Africa: The Gulf States, Turkey, and Israel Battle for Red Sea Influence
□ Key Points
- The Gulf states and Turkey have become increasingly involved in the Horn of Africa, effectively splitting the broader Red Sea region into two coalitions: an Emirati-backed, Israeli-supported axis of revisionist state and nonstate actors arrayed against a coalition of status quo African states aligned with Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey.
- Growing competition between these factions has raised the risk of a full-blown regional proxy war on both sides of the Red Sea.
- The United States cannot watch a proxy war unfold among US partners in the Red Sea. This would undermine US interests in maritime security, counterterrorism, and containing Iran, and it would allow malign actors such as Iran, Russia, al Qaeda, and ISIS to expand their influence.
- The United States should mediate the crisis by pushing back on the zero-sum mentality prevalent across the region and fuse increased pressure with inclusive solutions to de-escalate and build a more stable and mutually beneficial regional architecture.
- The Gulf states and Turkey have become increasingly involved in the Horn of Africa, effectively splitting the broader Red Sea region into two coalitions: an Emirati-backed, Israeli-supported axis of revisionist state and nonstate actors arrayed against a coalition of status quo African states aligned with Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey.
- Growing competition between these factions has raised the risk of a full-blown regional proxy war on both sides of the Red Sea.
- The United States cannot watch a proxy war unfold among US partners in the Red Sea. This would undermine US interests in maritime security, counterterrorism, and containing Iran, and it would allow malign actors such as Iran, Russia, al Qaeda, and ISIS to expand their influence.
- The United States should mediate the crisis by pushing back on the zero-sum mentality prevalent across the region and fuse increased pressure with inclusive solutions to de-escalate and build a more stable and mutually beneficial regional architecture.
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