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How resilient are tax-benefit systems in times of crisis?
For many Global South countries, social protection is rigid, inadequate and sometimes ineffective. Accounting for crises in the design of tax and benefit policies to protect the vulnerable during economic crises is a challenge for low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). This brief summarizes research on how tax and benefit systems in Ghana, South Africa, and Ecuador respond to income, demand, and informality shocks. This comparative research was conducted using microsimulation models from the SOUTHMOD project.
[Findings]
- Current fiscal policies in low- and middle-income countries offsets only a small share of income shocks―just 1.2% in Ghana compared to 22% in South Africa
- The high proportion of the informal workforce in Ghana and Ecuador limits the effectiveness of stabilization efforts in these countries
- Demand stabilization―how well a country’s tax and benefit system helps people keep spending during an economic shock―is weak in countries with low access to credit and savings
- South Africa’s generous, well-targeted social benefits contribute to higher poverty cushioning―how well a country’s tax and benefit system prevents people from falling into poverty during a crisis
[Findings]
- Current fiscal policies in low- and middle-income countries offsets only a small share of income shocks―just 1.2% in Ghana compared to 22% in South Africa
- The high proportion of the informal workforce in Ghana and Ecuador limits the effectiveness of stabilization efforts in these countries
- Demand stabilization―how well a country’s tax and benefit system helps people keep spending during an economic shock―is weak in countries with low access to credit and savings
- South Africa’s generous, well-targeted social benefits contribute to higher poverty cushioning―how well a country’s tax and benefit system prevents people from falling into poverty during a crisis
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